Publications

Many of our publications can be accessed on researchgate

Technical Assessment of Hybrid Powertrains for Energy-efficient Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Thu, 19 Apr 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Technical Assessment of Hybrid Powertrains for Energy-efficient Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Barrero Fernandez, R., Tran, D-D., Hegazy, O., Omar, N. & Van Mierlo, J. 19 Apr 2018 (Accepted/In press) Transport Research Arena (TRA) 2018.

Research output: ResearchConference paper

This article presents the approach used for the design optimization of heavy vehicles such as urban buses and delivery trucks as a part or the ORCA European Project. A methodology to find the optimal combination of hardware components and energy management strategy is presented and the use cases where it will be applied are described.
To achieve the optimal results, the vehicles need to be modeled with an appropriated methodology that allows for both performance evaluation and energy consumption assessment in short times. To achieve both objectives, the “forward” vehicle modeling, together with static or “low fidelity” models is proposed. Several simulation examples in both electric and conventional mode are given. These models will be used to assess several potential vehicles design, assess their performance, consumption and eventually estimate the total cost of ownership.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTransport Research Arena (TRA) 2018
StateAccepted/In press - 19 Apr 2018

Combining an Electrothermal and Impedance Aging Model to Investigate Thermal Degradation Caused by Fast Charging

Fri, 30 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Fast charging is an exciting topic in the field of electric and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs/HEVs). In order to achieve faster charging times, fast-charging applications involve high-current profiles which can lead to high cell temperature increase, and in some cases thermal runaways. There has been some research on the impact caused by fast-charging profiles. This research is mostly focused on the electrical, thermal and aging aspects of the cell individually, but these factors are never treated together. In this paper, the thermal progression of the lithium-ion battery under specific fast-charging profiles is investigated and modeled. The cell is a Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide/graphite-based cell (NMC) rated at 20 Ah, and thermal images during fast-charging have been taken at four degradation states: 100%, 90%, 85%, and 80% State-of-Health (SoH). A semi-empirical resistance aging model is developed using gathered data from extensive cycling and calendar aging tests, which is coupled to an electrothermal model. This novel combined model achieves good agreement with the measurements, with simulation results always within 2 °C of the measured values. This study presents a modeling methodology that is usable to predict the potential temperature distribution for lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) during fast-charging profiles at different aging states, which would be of benefit for Battery Management Systems (BMS) in future thermal strategies.
Original languageEnglish
Article number804
Number of pages15
JournalEnergies
Volume11
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 30 Mar 2018

Last mile configurations for e-commerce platform of the future: evaluation in terms of transport performance and external costs

Thu, 08 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

The e-commerce sector in Belgium grew by 13% last year, and further growth is expected. That translates itself in a high number of related transport activities. The last mile segment of an e-commerce supply chain is characterized by its fragmentation, while it copes with the issues of free deliveries, next day deliveries, failed deliveries and (free) retours. The impact on the economy, environment and society is problematic. From the operators perspective, their logistic activities are confronted with rising congestion levels, client requirements and preferences, a limited willingness to pay and intervening governments (road pricing, pedestrian zones, low emission zones, time windows, etc.). When introducing an online platform, assembling different brands and businesses like a regular shopping street, one needs to take into account these factors for drawing the implemented logistic network.
This research presents eight different network configurations for such a new platform. Each configuration consists of a different share of homedeliveries, different collection points, use of regional versus dedicated centralized distribution center and different transport vehicles. The configurations are analyzed and compared in terms of their transport performance (vkm, time losses), CO2 emissions, noise nuisance, air pollution and external costs for accidents and infrastructure. The calculations are performed with the agent-based freight transport model TRABAM. The time perspective is 2023 – assuming that the platform is operating for five years.
Original languageEnglish
StatePublished - 8 Mar 2018
EventNECTAR Cluster 3 : The future of transport - Venice, Italy
Duration: 7 Mar 20189 Mar 2018

Conference

ConferenceNECTAR Cluster 3 : The future of transport
CountryItaly
CityVenice
Period7/03/189/03/18

Phase-change materials (PCM) for automotive applications: A review

Mon, 05 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Phase-change materials (PCM) for automotive applications: A review

Jaguemont, J., Omar, N., Van Mierlo, J. & Van Den Bossche, P. 5 Mar 2018 In : Applied Thermal Engineering. 132, p. 308-320

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

In this paper, an extensive review of a battery thermal management systems (BTMSs) such as phase- change materials (PCMs) in the state of art is proposed. Nowadays, PCMs are particularly attractive and chosen as one of the most interesting cooling system in terms of high-energy storage density. In addi- tion, they are less bulky, complex and expensive than traditional cooling methods such as forced-air cool- ing or liquid cooling. Nonetheless, the integration of PCMs in a battery application calls for an analysis that will enable the researcher to proposed optimized BTMSs. Indeed, due to the lack of literature in this domain, the paper proposed to review all the existing studies on battery applications involving PCMs. Numerical analysis description, heat transfer theory along with the classification of the existing compo- nents for PCMs are also presented. This paper is based on previous reviews to help to update the thin number of references, which is considered by the authors as the major contribution
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)308-320
JournalApplied Thermal Engineering
Volume132
StatePublished - 5 Mar 2018

A Literature Survey and Experimental Evaluation of the State-of-the-Art in Uplift Modeling: A Stepping Stone Toward the Development of Prescriptive Analytics

Thu, 01 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Prescriptive analytics extends on predictive analytics by allowing to estimate an outcome in function of control variables, allowing as such to establish the required level of control variables for realizing a desired outcome. Uplift modeling is at the heart of prescriptive analytics and aims at estimating the net difference in an outcome resulting from a specific action or treatment that is applied. In this article, a structured and detailed literature survey on uplift modeling is provided by identifying and contrasting various groups of approaches. In addition, evaluation metrics for assessing the performance of uplift models are reviewed. An experimental evaluation on four real-world data sets provides further insight into their use. Uplift random forests are found to be consistently among the best performing techniques in terms of the Qini and Gini measures, although considerable variability in performance across the various data sets of the experiments is observed. In addition, uplift models are frequently observed to be unstable and display a strong variability in terms of performance across different folds in the cross-validation experimental setup. This potentially threatens their actual use for business applications. Moreover, it is found that the available evaluation metrics do not provide an intuitively understandable indication of the actual use and performance of a model. Specifically, existing evaluation metrics do not facilitate a comparison of uplift models and predictive models and evaluate performance either at an arbitrary cutoff or over the full spectrum of potential cutoffs. In conclusion, we highlight the instability of uplift models and the need for an application-oriented approach to assess uplift models as prime topics for further research.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)13-41
JournalBig Data
Volume6
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Mar 2018

Financing urban transportation infrastructure in a multi-actors environment: the role of value capture

Thu, 01 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Financing urban transportation infrastructure in a multi-actors environment: the role of value capture

Roukouni, A., Macharis, C., Basbas, S., Stephanis, B. & Mintsis, G. 1 Mar 2018 In : European Transport Research Review. 10, 1, 19 p., 14

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Purpose: A family of innovative financial mechanisms and tools for urban public transport, based on the value increment caused by enhanced accessibility, are lately gaining much popularity as a solution to the challenges posed by public financial resources’ shrinkage: Value Capture Finance (VCF). The effectiveness of applied transport financing policies depends significantly on the level of agreement among stakeholders, making collaboration a prerequisite for success. The research presented herein assesses alternative financing options for urban public transportation which are based on the VCF concept. Method: The Multi - Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) developed by Macharis [1] is used. The methodology is unique in its field, as it includes in-depth involvement of all relevant stakeholders and reveals their way of thinking. Results: The proposed methodological framework is applied to the real-world case study of the under construction metro system of Thessaloniki, Greece. Three different financing scenarios are tested, and the criteria weight elicitation is performed through personal interviews with 70 stakeholders belonging to six different groups, namely: Government/Local Authorities, Transport Authorities, Universities/Research Institutions, Private Sector, Society and Professional Associations. Noteworthy similarities but also contradictions among stakeholder groups emerged, highlighted by the different criteria used for each group. Conclusion: The paper introduces the MAMCA as an ex - ante evaluation method for different VCF mechanisms for urban transportation infrastructure. MAMCA emerges as a robust methodology for this assessment, as it is proved to be capable of dealing with the VCF complexity and multidisciplinary nature.

Original languageEnglish
Article number14
Number of pages19
JournalEuropean Transport Research Review
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Mar 2018

Tackling Fragmented Last Mile Deliveries to Nanostores by Utilizing Spare Transportation Capacity—A Simulation Study

Wed, 28 Feb 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Tackling Fragmented Last Mile Deliveries to Nanostores by Utilizing Spare Transportation Capacity—A Simulation Study

Kin, B., Ambra, T., Verlinde, S. & Macharis, C. 28 Feb 2018 In : Sustainability. 10, 653, p. 1-15 15 p.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Last mile deliveries in urban areas cause a disproportionate unsustainable impact, while it is also the most expensive part of the supply chain. This is particularly true for freight flows that are characterized by fragmentation. Logistically, this becomes apparent in vehicles that are driving around with a low vehicle fill rate, leading to the unnecessary presence of freight vehicles in our cities. This study focuses on the operational feasibility of utilizing the spare transportation capacity of a service-driven company as a potential solution to supply small independent retailers, or nanostores. The aim is to reduce inefficient vehicle movement. Based on a real-life implementation, we use SYnchronization Model for Belgian Inland Transport (SYMBIT), an agent-based model, to simulate various bundling scenarios. Results show the total vehicle kilometers and lead times to supply nanostores for the service-driven company to serve its customers. There is a potential to utilize spare capacity to supply nanostores while maintaining a decent service level. The number of vehicle kilometers driven highly depends on the location of the distribution center where the service-driven company operates. Based on these results, the conditions that have to be met to replicate this solution in other urban areas are discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-15
Number of pages15
JournalSustainability
Volume10
Issue number653
StatePublished - 28 Feb 2018

Short-term Solar Power Forecasting Considering Cloud Coverage and Ambient Temperature Variation Effects

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Short-term Solar Power Forecasting Considering Cloud Coverage and Ambient Temperature Variation Effects

Heidari Gandoman, F., H.E.Abdel Aleem, S., Omar, N., Ahmadi, A. & Q.Alenezi, F. 20 Feb 2018 (Accepted/In press) In : Renewable Energy. 123, p. 793-805 793 p., 123

Research output: ResearchArticle

The use of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems as green renewable sources for electricity generation in modern power networks is steadily increasing. One of the problems with using PV units in developing countries and small companies is access to a simple model to assess the short-time output of a solar cell. For example, a robust model that is capable of analyzing cloud variations and ambient temperature (important factors impacting the PV output) to assess short-term PV output would be very helpful. This article proposes a new methodology to assess the impacts of these factors on the hourly output power of a PV system. Our results showed that the proposed model has the ability to assess PV output by using the hourly data of cloud and ambient temperature change. To validate the model, the output was compared to results of measurements from PV systems installed in Sanandaj and Rasht cities located in North-West (latitude 35.31 and longitude 47.00) and North (latitude 37.28 and longitude 49.58) Iran, respectively. Also, the standardized root-mean-square error method (nRMSE) was used to validate the high accuracy of the proposed method.
Original languageEnglish
Article number123
Pages (from-to)793-805
Number of pages793
JournalRenewable Energy
Volume123
StateAccepted/In press - 20 Feb 2018

A Combined Thermo-Electric Resistance Degradation model for Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide based Lithium-Ion cells

Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:00:00 GMT

A Combined Thermo-Electric Resistance Degradation model for Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide based Lithium-Ion cells

De Hoog, J., Jaguemont, J., Nikolian, A., Van Mierlo, J., Van Den Bossche, P. & Omar, N. 15 Feb 2018 (Accepted/In press) In : Applied Thermal Engineering. 15 p.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

This paper presents a novel effort in combining an electro-thermal internal resistance model for Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC) cathode and graphite anode based cells, designed for predictive analysis for automotive applications. This unique approach provides insight in the degradation rate of the internal resistance with respect to the Depth of Discharge, Current rate, cycle number, storage State of Charge and storage time. The data used for the model development is courtesy of a huge test-campaign, spanning the course of 2.5 years, and provides a good insight in the behavior of what is considered to be a very promising battery cell technology for automotive applications. Experimental results show that the internal resistance evolution is strongly dependent on Depth of Discharge and temperature, while high storage State of Charges and high storage temperatures increase the degradation rate during calendaring aging. The combined electric and thermal models make it possible to estimate the influence of the current rate on the degradation of the internal resistance. The developed lifetime model is capable of correctly estimating the degradation and temperature behavior of static load profiles, while also providing insight in the evolution of the temperature profile and other cell characteristics.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages15
JournalApplied Thermal Engineering
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - 15 Feb 2018

Technical Viability of Battery Second Life: A Study from the Ageing Perspective

Fri, 02 Feb 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Technical Viability of Battery Second Life: A Study from the Ageing Perspective

Martinez-Laserna, E., Sarasketa-Zabala, E., Villarreal, I., Ioan Stroe, D., Swierczynski, M., Warnecke, A., Timmermans, J-M. P., Goutam, S., Omar, N. & Rodriguez, P. 2 Feb 2018 In : IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications. PP, 99, p. 1-1

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Reusing electric vehicle batteries once they have been retired from the automotive application is stated as one of the possible solutions to reduce electric vehicle costs. Many publications in literature have analysed the economic viability of such a solution, and some car manufacturers have recently started running several projects to demonstrate the technical viability of the so-called battery second life. Nevertheless, the degradation behaviour of second life batteries remains unknown and represents one of the biggest gaps in the literature. The present work aims at evaluating the effects of Lithium-ion (Li-ion) NMC/C battery State of Health (SOH) and ageing history over the second life performance, on two different applications: a residential demand management application and a power smoothing renewable integration application. The performance and degradation of second life batteries are assessed both at the cell level and at stack level. Homogeneous and heterogeneous stacks are analysed in order to evaluate the impact of cell-to-cell history and SOH differences over the battery performance and degradation behaviour. Results obtained showed a strong influence of the first life battery ageing history upon the second life battery performance and degradation. Thereby, proper monitoring and battery selection appears crucial to certify the technical viability of battery second life.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-1
Journal IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications
VolumePP
Issue number99
DOIs
StatePublished - 2 Feb 2018

Evaluating the impact of off-hour deliveries: An application of the TRansport Agent-BAsed model

Thu, 01 Feb 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Evaluating the impact of off-hour deliveries: An application of the TRansport Agent-BAsed model

Mommens, K. M., Lebeau, P., Verlinde, S., Van Lier, T. & Macharis, C. Feb 2018 In : Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 62, p. 102-111 10 p.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

The expected growth of freight transport should affect the performances of our transport system if we keep with the business as usual. Especially urban settings suffer from congestion and air pollution. Shifting deliveries to the night is considered as one promising solution to alleviate the growing congestion and emissions generated by freight transport. In order to check the compatibility
of night deliveries with its local environment, research has been mostly focused on the analysis of trials and on the impacts it has at a micro level. This paper aims at analysing the impact of night distribution at a macro level. It evaluates the contribution of off hour deliveries on the performances of the transport system. The paper will use TRABAM, a freight transport agent based model, to simulate the impact of different use of night distribution in supermarkets.
The organisation of the freight flows resulting from the new time constraints is then evaluated according the externalities generated by these flows. The analysis shows that a distribution where deliveries are possible only during the day performs the worst since it generates the highest external costs. The business as usual gives already some good performances since night distribution is already used by some supermarkets in Wallonia. But the scenario where a maximum
of one delivery per night is allowed to supermarkets is found to be the best trade-off between the benefits and drawbacks of night distribution.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)102-111
Number of pages10
JournalTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume62
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2018

On the ageing of high energy lithium-ion batteries-comprehensive electrochemical diffusivity studies of Harvested Nickel Manganese Cobalt Electrodes

Tue, 23 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

This paper examines the impact of the characterisation technique considered for the determination of the Li+ solid state diffusion coefficient in uncycled as in cycled Nickel Manganese Cobalt oxide (NMC) electrodes. As major characterisation techniques, Cyclic Voltammetry (CV), Galvanostatic Intermittent Titration Technique (GITT) and Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) were systematically investigated. Li+ diffusion coefficients during the lithiation process of the uncycled and cycled electrodes determined by CV at 3.71 V are shown to be equal to 3.48 × 10-10 cm2·s-1 and 1.56 × 10-10 cm2·s-1, respectively. The dependency of the Li+ diffusion with the lithium content in the electrodes is further studied in this paper with GITT and EIS. Diffusion coefficients calculated by GITT and EIS characterisations are shown to be in the range between 1.76×10-15 cm2·s-1 and 4.06×10-12 cm2·s-1, while demonstrating the same decreasing trend with the lithiation process of the electrodes. For both electrode types, diffusion coefficients calculated by CV show greater values compared to those determined by GITT and EIS. With ageing, CV and EIS techniques lead to diffusion coefficients in the electrodes at 3.71 V that are decreasing, in contrast to GITT for which results indicate increasing diffusion coefficient. After long-term cycling, ratios of the diffusion coefficients determined by GITT compared to CV become more significant with an increase about 1 order of magnitude, while no significant variation is seen between the diffusion coefficients calculated from EIS in comparison to CV.

Original languageEnglish
Article number176
Number of pages18
JournalMaterials
Volume11
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 23 Jan 2018

Advances in Renewable Energies and Power Technologies: Volume 2: Geothermal and Biomass Energies, Fuel Cells, and Smart Grid

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Advances in Renewable Energies and Power Technologies: Volume 2: Geothermal and Biomass Energies, Fuel Cells, and Smart Grid

M Sharaf, A., Omar, N., Heidari Gandoman, F., Faheem Zobaa, A. & Hossam Eldeen Abdel Aleem, S. 1 Jan 2018 (Accepted/In press) Electric and hybrid vehicle drives and smart grid interfacing.

Research output: ResearchChapter

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationElectric and hybrid vehicle drives and smart grid interfacing
StateAccepted/In press - 1 Jan 2018

Range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis: A combined method of Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to support participatory decision making under uncertainty

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis: A combined method of Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to support participatory decision making under uncertainty

Baudry, G., Macharis, C. & Vallee, T. 1 Jan 2018 In : European Journal of Operational Research. 264, 1, p. 257-269

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Concerns about environmental and social effects have made Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) increasingly popular. Decision making in complex contexts often – possibly always – requires addressing an aggregation of multiple issues to meet social, economic, legal, technical, and environmental objectives. These values at stake may affect different stakeholders through distributional effects characterized by a high and heterogeneous uncertainty that no social actors can completely control or understand. On this basis, we present a new process framework that aims to support participatory decision making under uncertainty: the range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (range-based MAMCA). On the one hand, the process framework explicitly considers stakeholders’ objectives at an output level of aggregation. On the other hand, by means of a Monte Carlo analysis, the method also provides an exploratory scenario approach that enables the capture of the uncertainty, which stems from the complex context evolution. Range-based MAMCA offers a unique participatory process framework that enables us (1) to identify the alternatives pros and cons for each stakeholder group; (2) to provide probabilities about the risk of supporting mistaken, or at least ill-suited, decisions because of the uncertainty regarding to the decision-making context; (3) to take the decision-makers’ limited control of the actual policy effects over the implementation of one or several options into account. The range-based MAMCA framework is illustrated by means of our first case study that aimed to assess French stakeholders’ support for different biofuel options by 2030.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)257-269
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume264
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2018

Review of FACTS technologies and applications for power quality in smartgrids with renewable energy systems

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Review of FACTS technologies and applications for power quality in smartgrids with renewable energy systems

Heidari Gandoman, F., Ahmadi, A., M Sharaf, A., Siano, P., Pou, J., Hredzak, B. & G. Agelidis, V. 1 Jan 2018 Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 1, 82, p. 502-514

Research output: VulgarizingArticle

In the last two decades, emerging use of renewable and distributed energy sources in electricity grid has creatednew challenges for the utility regarding the power quality, voltage stabilization and efficient energy utilization.Power electronic converters are extensively utilized to interface the emerging energy systems (without and withenergy storage) and smart buildings with the transmission and distribution systems. Flexible ac transmissionsystems (FACTSs) and voltage-source converters, with smart dynamic controllers, are emerging as a stabilizationand powerfiltering equipment to improve the power quality. Also, distributed FACTSs play an important role inimproving the power factor, energy utilization, enhancing the power quality, and ensuring efficient energyutilization and energy management in smart grids with renewable energy sources. This paper presents a lit-erature survey of FACTS technology tools and applications for power quality and efficient renewable energysystem utilization

Original languageEnglish
Pages502-514
JournalRenewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
PublisherElsevier
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2018

A quick on-line state of health estimation method for Li-ion battery with incremental capacity curves processed by Gaussian filter

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

This paper proposes an advanced state of health (SoH) estimation method for high energy NMC lithium-ion batteries based on the incremental capacity (IC) analysis. IC curves are used due to their ability of detect and quantify battery degradation mechanism. A simple and robust smoothing method is proposed based on Gaussian filter to reduce the noise on IC curves, and the signatures associated with battery ageing can therefore be accurately identified. A linear regression relationship is found between the battery capacity with the positions of features of interest (FOIs) on IC curves. Results show that the developed SoH estimation function from one single battery cell is able to evaluate the SoH of other batteries cycled under different cycling depth with less than 2.5% maximum errors, which proves the robustness of the proposed method on SoH estimation. With this technique, partial charging voltage curves can be used for SoH estimation and the testing time can be therefore largely reduced. This method shows great potential to be applied in reality, as it only requires static charging curves and can be easily implemented in battery management system (BMS).
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)40-53
JournalJournal of Power Sources
Volume373
Issue number2018
StatePublished - Jan 2018

A Step Towards Demand Sensing: Employing EDI 852 Product Activity Data in Demand Forecasting

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

A Step Towards Demand Sensing: Employing EDI 852 Product Activity Data in Demand Forecasting

Van Belle, J. E. & Verbeke, W. Jan 2018 Third Conference on Business Analytics in Finance and Industry. Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, p. 40-40 1 p.

Research output: ResearchMeeting abstract (Book)

This paper deals with short-term demand forecasting of medicines in a US drugs factory based on historical sales and EDI 852
product activity data. Traditionally, demand forecasting relies on statistical methods such as ARIMA, and smoothing methods
such as exponential smoothing, to extrapolate the series of historical sales. Although these methods produce reasonably
accurate forecasts in many cases, companies are looking for an increasingly higher level of forecast accuracy to further enhance
the efficiency of their supply chains. With more and more diverse data becoming available at a higher velocity, it becomes
possible to employ non-traditional data sources and generate forecasts for increasingly shorter time periods. From this point of
view, in recent years, the concept of demand sensing emerged. However, in the scientific literature and empirical studies, the
concept has gained only very little attention to date. Essentially, demand sensing comes down to leveraging a combination of
near real-time (i.e. orders), downstream (ideally point-of-sale) and external data to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts.
In their purest form, however, the traditional models do not allow for the inclusion of covariates. In this paper a particular type
of downstream data, EDI 852 product activity data (a data standard used for exchanging product related information between
the supplier and the (end)customer), is employed in producing short-term weekly demand forecasts obtained from linear,
dynamic (i.e. with ARIMA errors) and lasso regression and an ETS-X, artificial neural network and support vector regression
model. In order to produce the forecasts, three years of historical weekly factory sales data and weekly wholesaler sales, ending
inventory, on order quantities and receipts for the same time period are used. As a benchmark, also forecasts from an ARIMA
and ETS model are produced. To evaluate the forecast accuracy, we adopt a sliding window approach and measure
out-of-sample RMSE, MAE, MAPE and MASE, so that both comparison between the methods as well as comparison across
different series is facilitated. Our results clearly indicate that forecast accuracy can effectively be improved by leveraging
downstream data from wholesalers. The extent of improvement over traditional forecasting techniques varies between the
forecast items included in the study, as well as between the various models considered. Although linear models can already
produce considerable gains in accuracy levels, nonlinear methods tend to outperform.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationThird Conference on Business Analytics in Finance and Industry
PublisherFacultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile
Pages40-40
Number of pages1
ISBN (Electronic)0719-8981
StatePublished - Jan 2018
EventBAFI 2018 - Santiago, Chile
Duration: 17 Jan 201819 Jan 2018
Conference number: 3
http://www.bafi.cl/

Conference

ConferenceBAFI 2018
Abbreviated titleBAFI
CountryChile
CitySantiago
Period17/01/1819/01/18
Internet address

Technologies and control for sustainable transportation

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Technologies and control for sustainable transportation

Macharis, C. & Veelenturf, L. P. Jan 2018 In : Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies. 86, p. 168-170

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)168-170
JournalTransportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
Volume86
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2018

A robust profit measure for binary classification model evaluation

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

A robust profit measure for binary classification model evaluation

Garrido, F., Verbeke, W. & Bravo, C. 2018 In : Expert Systems with Applications. 92, p. 154-160 7 p.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Using profit-based evaluation measures is a necessity in business-oriented contexts, as they aid companies in making cost-optimal decisions. Among the measures that effectively include the true nature of costs and benefits in binary classification, the expected maximum profit (EMP) has been used successfully for churn prediction and credit scoring, and defined in general for binary classification problems. However, despite its competitive results against the most frequently used measures, the EMP relies on a fixed probability distribution of costs and benefits, the range of which in real applications is not entirely known. In this paper, we propose to extend this measure by adding random shocks to these distributions. We call this new measure the R-EMP, following the convention of the analogous EMP measure. Our metric adds a stochastic component to each point of the cost-benefit distributions, assuming that costs and benefits have a fixed probability, but its distribution range is subject to an external shock, which can be different for each cost or benefit. The experimental setup is focused on a credit scoring application using a dataset of a Chilean financial institution, with the attribute selection for a logistic regression being accomplished using the AUC, EMP, H-measure, and R-EMP as the selection criteria. The results indicate that the R-EMP measure is the most robust metric for achieving the greatest profit for the company under uncertain external conditions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)154-160
Number of pages7
JournalExpert Systems with Applications
Volume92
Early online date17 Sep 2017
DOIs
StatePublished - 2018

From Desirable to Feasible: Fostering Inter-Institutional Cooperation with Competence-based Multi Criteria Analysis (COMCA)

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMAMCA
PublisherEdward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
StateAccepted/In press - 2018

Geographies of transportation in the twenty-first century

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Geographies of transportation in the twenty-first century

Szalkai, G., Jancsovics, A., Keserü, I., Macharis, C., Nemeth, B. & Oszter, V. 2018 New Geographies of the Globalized World. Solarz, M. W. (ed.). London and New York: Routledge, p. 93-114 (Routledge Studies in Human Geography; vol. 75)

Research output: Research - peer-reviewChapter

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationNew Geographies of the Globalized World
EditorsMarcin Wojciech Solarz
Place of PublicationLondon and New York
PublisherRoutledge
Pages93-114
ISBN (Print)978-1-138-67641-1
StatePublished - 2018

Publication series

NameRoutledge Studies in Human Geography
PublisherRoutledge
Volume75

Mobility is a serious game : a game to explore the future of mobility

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Mobility is a serious game : a game to explore the future of mobility

Macharis, C. 2018 Mobility is a serious game : a game to explore the future of mobility. 18-02432

Research output: ResearchConference paper

Our society is changing rapidly and its mobility system does not keep pace. We are still driving around in diesel cars, not internalising external costs, not using multimodality in its full potential, etc. Although there is more and more consensus that we should go for a more sustainable mobility system, it does not seem to be easy to implement it and to create a common vision of the future. Thinking about that future is also not that easy. For this reason we created the board game « Mobility is a serious game ». It enables to explore the future of mobility in three time horizons: near future (1 to 5 years), medium (5-10 years) and long (up to 30 years). It is an interactive setting where the players can put themselves into the roles of either a government (local or higher), a business (up to two players), an NGO (also maximum two players) and the public voice. This public voice has an important role as he/she will comment on the actions of the others players and so reward their actions with coins. The game has been tried out several times before launching it on a large event. The game enables to connect people, show empathy for each other's role and let new and collaborative ideas surface.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMobility is a serious game : a game to explore the future of mobility
StatePublished - 2018
EventTransportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting - Washington, D.C., United States
Duration: 7 Jan 201811 Jan 2018

Conference

ConferenceTransportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
CountryUnited States
CityWashington, D.C.
Period7/01/1811/01/18

Rethinking mobility for a human city

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Rethinking mobility for a human city

Macharis, C. & Keseru, I. 2018 In : Transport Reviews. 38, 3, p. 275-278

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)275-278
JournalTransport Reviews
Volume38
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 2018

Rhythmic Keccak: SCA Security and Low Latency in HW

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Rhythmic Keccak: SCA Security and Low Latency in HW

Arribas, V., Bilgin, B., Petrides, G., Nikova, S. & Rijmen, V. 2018 In : IACR Transactions on Cryptographic Hardware and Embedded Systems. 2018, 1, p. 269-290 22 p.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Glitches entail a great issue when securing a cryptographic implementation in hardware. Several masking schemes have been proposed in the literature that provide security even in the presence of glitches. The key property that allows this protection was introduced in threshold implementations as non-completeness. We address crucial points to ensure the right compliance of this property especially for low-latency implementations. Specifically, we first discuss the existence of a flaw in DSD 2017 implementation of Keccak by Gross et al. in violation of the non-completeness property and propose a solution. We perform a side-channel evaluation on the first-order and second-order implementations of the proposed design where no leakage is detected with up to 55 million traces. Then, we present a method to ensure a non-complete scheme of an unrolled implementation applicable to any order of security or algebraic degree of the shared function. By using this method we design a two-rounds unrolled first-order Keccak-f[200] implementation that completes an encryption in 20.61ns, the fastest SCA secure implementation in the literature to this date.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)269-290
Number of pages22
JournalIACR Transactions on Cryptographic Hardware and Embedded Systems
Volume2018
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2018

Total Cost for Society: A Persona-based Analysis of Electric and Conventional Vehicles

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Total Cost for Society: A Persona-based Analysis of Electric and Conventional Vehicles

De Clerck, Q., Van Lier, T., Messagie, M., Macharis, C., Van Mierlo, J. & Vanhaverbeke, L. 2018 In : Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. p. xx 21 p., xx

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

The purchase and usage of a car comes at a cost for the owner, i.e. the Total Cost of Ownership, but also causes costs to society, i.e. external costs. Summing up the privately borne costs with the publicly borne costs results in the Total Cost for Society.

To assess how ownership costs and external costs are currently balanced in the Total Cost for Society for different vehicle technologies, we present a persona-based analysis of the costs categories associated with the ownership and usage of electric and conventional cars within three passenger car segments. Six persona represent diverse driver profiles with different mobility patterns in Flanders (Belgium).

We find that the balance between ownership costs and external costs is highly variable given the assumed persona, while for each persona the ranking between the vehicle technologies themselves does not vary much.
Original languageEnglish
Article numberxx
Pages (from-to)xx
Number of pages21
JournalTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
StatePublished - 2018

Transferia: solving local pain or bringing global gain?

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Transferia: solving local pain or bringing global gain?

Meers, D., Vermeiren, T. & Macharis, C. 2018 In : International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications. 21, 2, p. 148-159

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)148-159
JournalInternational Journal of Logistics Research and Applications
Volume21
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2018

Travel-based multitasking: review of the empirical evidence

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Travel-based multitasking: review of the empirical evidence

KESERü, I. & Macharis, C. 2018 In : Transport Reviews. 38, 2, p. 162-183

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

This paper reviews 58 studies with empirical evidence on travel-based multitasking, identifies gaps in terms of data collection methods and provides a comprehensive review of findings about the significance of variables with an impact on the prevalence and type of multitasking. We identified the limitations of quantitative or qualitative surveys and advocate a mixed methods approach to provide an in-depth understanding of travel-based multitasking. We revealed that cross-country comparisons are missing due to the lack of empirical evidence outside the developed countries. While there are indications of increasing multitasking with mobile devices, we found only two longitudinal surveys that provide evidence. We call for a standardisation of definitions of multitasking activities to enable more longitudinal research. We identified 75 variables that were tested for impact on travel-based multitasking in previous research, of which 60 were found to be significant. Sufficient evidence (i.e. minimum three papers), however, only exists for age, gender, trip duration, travel mode, trip purpose, time of the day and day of the week of the trip and the presence of a travel companion. Therefore, more research is suggested to determine the influence of attitude, comfort, availability of equipment, time use and spatial attributes on the type and prevalence of travel-based multitasking.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)162-183
JournalTransport Reviews
Volume38
Issue number2
Early online date28 Apr 2017
DOIs
StatePublished - 2018

When decisions can’t or shan’t be taken alone: Multi-criteria, multi-actor, multi-level appraisal in Brussels

Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT

When decisions can’t or shan’t be taken alone: Multi-criteria, multi-actor, multi-level appraisal in Brussels

Te Boveldt, G. 2018 (Accepted/In press) TRANSPORT AND SOCIO-SPATIAL EQUITY. Hickman , R., Mella Lira, B. & Geurs, K. (eds.). Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewChapter

Appraisal methods provide key input for decision making in transport planning. Despite a tendency of stakeholder participation in planning, appraisal is typically performed from a single-actor perspective, not taking into account the uneven distribution of costs and benefits of transport projects over space and society. Motives for evaluating the socio-spatial distribution of impacts can be ethical but also pragmatic, when support or collaboration of local stakeholders is required for the delivery of the project. This is especially important in projects that cross administrative borders, which necessitate the inclusion of multiple governments.
This chapter presents a framework for multi-perspective evaluation, based on multi criteria analysis. The framework, called Competence-based Multi Criteria Analysis (COMCA), allows for classifying stakeholders and evaluating decision alternatives on their criteria. This provides an overview of the utility of each alternative for each of the stakeholder groups that decision makers deem relevant, but also for the individual members of those groups. COMCA is illustrated against the background of Brussels (Belgium), where due to politico-geographical complexity, major transport projects typically require collaboration of multiple actors at multiple institutional levels.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTRANSPORT AND SOCIO-SPATIAL EQUITY
EditorsRobin Hickman , Beatriz Mella Lira, Karst Geurs
PublisherEdward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
StateAccepted/In press - 2018

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Fri, 22 Dec 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Höltl, A., Macharis, C. & De Brucker, K. 22 Dec 2017 In : Energies. 11, 1, 20 p.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050.
The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below
1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order
to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility,
efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external
factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society’s mobility system
and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility
and ownership continue to increase as expected in a ‘business as usual’ case, a share of 97% plug-in
hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in
greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology
such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would
raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition
will be required.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages20
JournalEnergies
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 22 Dec 2017

An Evaluation Study of Hybrid Energy Storage System for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Buses

Thu, 14 Dec 2017 00:00:00 GMT

An Evaluation Study of Hybrid Energy Storage System for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Buses

Tran, D-D., Hegazy, O., Omar, N., Van Mierlo, J. & Barrero Fernandez, R. 14 Dec 2017 IEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference (VPPC’2017). p. 1-7 7 p.

Research output: ResearchConference paper

This paper reviews different configurations of the hybrid-energy-storage-system (HESS), a combination of a Li-ion Battery (LiB) pack, a Li-ion capacitor (LiC) bank, and DC-DC converters, for Plug-in hybrid electric (PHE) buses. A new HESS configuration is proposed to improve the efficiency of power transfer from battery and to reduce the voltage rating of LiC bank associated the cell balancing problem. The simulation results with a standard SORT driving cycle will be used to optimize the sizing of LiB and LiC packs. The comparative analysis illustrates that the proposed configuration has several merits against the conventional hybrid topology based on high-energy batteries and electrical double-layer capacitors in terms of weight and volume.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference (VPPC’2017)
Pages1-7
Number of pages7
StatePublished - 14 Dec 2017
EventIEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference (VPPC) - Belfort, France
Duration: 11 Dec 201714 Dec 2017

Conference

ConferenceIEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference (VPPC)
Period11/12/1714/12/17

Complete cell-level lithium-ion electrical ECM model for different chemistries (NMC, LFP, LTO) and temperatures (−5 °C to 45 °C) – Optimized modelling techniques

Thu, 14 Dec 2017 00:00:00 GMT

In this study a complete cell-level electrical equivalent circuit model (ECM) of energy and power lithium-ion cells with 3 different chemistries and multiple temperatures (−5 °C to 45 °C) is developed and validated under different dynamic load profiles. The chemistries under investigation are Nickel Manganese Cobalt 20 Ah (high energy), Lithium Iron Phosphate 14 Ah (high power) and Lithium Titanate Oxide 5 Ah (high power), providing a range of different cell characteristics and capacities. An updated workflow for the development of the ECM model is presented which includes extended versions of previous characterization and parameterization procedures used to populate a 2nd Order Thévenin ECM topology. The model is able to use two types of charge estimations, the extended coulomb counting and the extended Kalman filter techniques. The accuracy of the simulation in all three chemistries is increased through this improved characterization and optimization procedures. The “Initial State of Charge value”, “Capacity Value”, “Internal Resistance value” and the “Open Circuit Voltage” are included inside the complete model and have shown to affect greatly the accuracy of the simulations, specifically when the extended coulomb counting technique is implemented. The State of Health (SoH) level the validation profile was characterize in combination with the total time the simulation is performed have shown to affect also the accuracy of the simulation. The complete developed model is able to be combined with thermal and ageing models of lithium-ion cells. Combining this with the extended database of validated simulations for the different chemistries and temperatures, provides a suitable model to be extended to pack-level models of battery packs.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)133-146
JournalInternational Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems
Volume98
Issue numberJune 2018
DOIs
StatePublished - 14 Dec 2017

Modelling alternative distribution set-ups for fragmented last mile transport: Towards more efficient and sustainable urban freight transport

Thu, 07 Dec 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Modelling alternative distribution set-ups for fragmented last mile transport: Towards more efficient and sustainable urban freight transport

Kin, B., Spoor, J., Verlinde, S., Macharis, C. & Van Woensel, T. 7 Dec 2017 In : Case Studies on Transport Policy. 6, 1, p. 125-132 8 p.

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

A mathematical model is developed to calculate the costs of alternative distribution set-ups for last mile
transportation in a supply chain with small and fragmented volumes. The model is based on input from logistics
cost models for urban areas combined with cost variables related to logistics processes, receiver attributes and
local city characteristics. The cost variables for each aspect (logistics, receiver, city) influence the cost-effectiveness
and applicability of an alternative distribution set-up. The model is applied on the delivery of fast
moving consumer goods (FMCG) towards small independent retailers in a megacity. The current supply of these
stores is characterized by high costs, inefficiency and unsustainability. Four different set-ups are modelled. The
model shows the effects of different city and store request parameters. When drop sizes are low and distances are
short, direct shipments with smaller vehicles outperform the current direct set-up. When drop sizes are low and
distances are long, collaborating in an urban consolidation centre (UCC) shows a saving. The model can be
further validated with data from other cities and other distribution set-ups.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)125-132
Number of pages8
JournalCase Studies on Transport Policy
Volume6
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 7 Dec 2017

Allocating collaborative costs in multimodal barge networks for freight bundling

Fri, 01 Dec 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Allocating collaborative costs in multimodal barge networks for freight bundling

Ramaekers, K., Verdonck, L., Caris, A., Meers, D. & Macharis, C. Dec 2017 In : Journal of Transport Geography. 65, p. 56-69

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

In order to improve the competitive position and efficiency level of multimodal transport, consolidation of freight flows is often suggested. Bundling networks require cooperation between multiple partners in the multimodal transport chain. In this context, the question rises how benefits may be allocated fairly among the spatially distributed participants in the cooperation. A great deal of scientific literature reports on the behavior of allocation methods in collaborations between shippers or carriers making use of unimodal road transport. However, research on cost or savings allocation methods in multimodal transport is scarce. The main contribution of this paper is thus to provide a first insight in the complexity of sharing cost savings fairly among shippers who bundle freight flows in order to reach economies of scale in multimodal barge transport. By applying four different allocation methods to two realistic case studies, a comparison is made between simple and straightforward allocation mechanisms and more advanced techniques based on cooperative game theory. Special attention is paid to the savings division among coalition partners and collaborative stability. Results demonstrate the influence of cooperation characteristics on allocation outcomes and underline the value of carefully selecting appropriate allocation mechanisms when long-term stability of the multimodal barge collaboration is aspired.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)56-69
JournalJournal of Transport Geography
Volume65
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2017

Rechargeable Energy Storage Technologies for Automotive Applications – Present and Future

Sat, 25 Nov 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Rechargeable Energy Storage Technologies for Automotive Applications – Present and Future

Omar, N., Gopalakrishnan, R., Van Den Bossche, P. & Van Mierlo, J. 25 Nov 2017 Rechargeable Energy Storage Technologies for Automotive Applications – Present and Future. Dresden: VDI/VDE Society, Measurement and Automation, p. 1 20 p.

Research output: ResearchConference paper

This paper provides an extended summary of the available relevant rechargeable energy storage electrode materials that can be used for hybrid, plugin and battery electric vehicles.
The considered technologies are the existing lithium-ion batteries and the next generation technologies such as lithium sulfur, solid state, metal-air, high voltage materials, metal-air and sodium based.
This analysis gives a clear overview of the battery potential and characteristics in terms of energy, power, lifetime, cost and finally the technical hurdles.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRechargeable Energy Storage Technologies for Automotive Applications – Present and Future
Place of PublicationDresden
PublisherVDI/VDE Society, Measurement and Automation
Pages1
Number of pages20
StatePublished - 25 Nov 2017
EventVDI conference - Dresden, Dresden, Germany
Duration: 23 Nov 201624 Nov 2016

Conference

ConferenceVDI conference
CountryGermany
CityDresden
Period23/11/1624/11/16

Grensoverschrijdend draagvlak voor grensoverschrijdende projecten: Besluitvorming vanuit multi-actor perspectief

Fri, 24 Nov 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Grensoverschrijdend draagvlak voor grensoverschrijdende projecten: Besluitvorming vanuit multi-actor perspectief

Te Boveldt, G., Keserü, I. & Macharis, C. 24 Nov 2017 Bijdrage aan het Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk 23 en 24 november 2017, Gent.

Research output: ResearchConference paper

Translated title of the contributionBorder-crossing support for border-crossing projects : Decision making from a multi-actor perspective
Grootschalige transportprojecten zijn vaak niet alleen op technisch, maar ook op bestuurlijk vlak een uitdaging. Actoren met verschillende bevoegdheden moeten gezamenlijk beslissingen over één project zien te maken. Bij projecten die bestuurlijke grenzen overschrijden is deze opgave nog groter, omdat de balans tussen positieve en negatieve effecten verschilt voor iedere actor, afhankelijk van zijn locatie en de schaal van het gebied dat hij vertegenwoordigt. Dit artikel onderzoekt hoe de verschillende belangen van de beslissende actoren kunnen worden geïntegreerd met multi-actor evaluatiemethoden teneinde de besluitvorming in politiek complexe projecten te versoepelen. De problematiek wordt geïllustreerd met een toepassing van een multi-actor, multi-level, multi-criteria-analyse op het vraagstuk van een nieuwe spoorverbinding door Brussel.
Original languageDutch
Title of host publicationBijdrage aan het Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk 23 en 24 november 2017, Gent
StatePublished - 24 Nov 2017

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050: Pathways and impacts: An evaluation of forecasts and backcasting the COP21 commitments

Wed, 01 Nov 2017 00:00:00 GMT

The transition to a Zero Emission Vehicles fleet for cars in the EU by 2050: Pathways and impacts: An evaluation of forecasts and backcasting the COP21 commitments

Witkamp, B., van Gijlswijk, R., Bolech, M., Coosemans, T. & Hooftman, N. S. Nov 2017 European Alternative Fuels Observatory. 88 p.

Research output: ResearchCommissioned report

Original languageEnglish
PublisherEuropean Alternative Fuels Observatory
Commissioning bodyEuropean Commission Directorate General for Mobility & Transport
Number of pages88
StatePublished - Nov 2017

Performance and reliability assessment of NMC lithium ion batteries for stationary application

Tue, 31 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Performance and reliability assessment of NMC lithium ion batteries for stationary application

Yi, L., Omar, N., Nanini-Maury, E., Van Den Bossche, P. & Van Mierlo, J. 31 Oct 2017 Performance and reliability assessment of NMC lithium ion batteries for stationary application. VPPC, p. 1-6 6 p.

Research output: ResearchConference paper

One of the main barriers to increasing the market size of lithium ion batteries for stationary applications is their lifetime. In order to select the optimal cells for integrating into grids, battery performance characterization and lifetime analysis need to be carried out to assess the battery performance and reliability under various operating conditions. In this work, a comprehensive investigation has been carried out to address these issues for a lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide battery type. Moreover, an empirical ageing model for the lifetime prediction is presented.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationPerformance and reliability assessment of NMC lithium ion batteries for stationary application
PublisherVPPC
Pages1-6
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 31 Oct 2017
EventVPPC 2016 - Hangzhou, China
Duration: 17 Oct 201620 Oct 2016
http://www.vppc2016.org

Conference

ConferenceVPPC 2016
CountryChina
CityHangzhou
Period17/10/1620/10/16
Internet address

Overcoming the Joint Decision Trap: multi-actor multi-level decision making in the Brussels metropolitan area

Thu, 19 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Planning problems that exceed a city’s administrative boundaries demand a metropolitan approach. The metropolitan area of Brussels is an extreme case of institutional fragmentation and layering, which means virtually all major planning projects in the area require the involvement of multiple actors at multiple levels. Lack of incentives to pursue common goals has led to political deadlock in most transport planning projects.
This paper presents a multi-actor multi-level impact analysis and decision-making method which was devised with a double aim: improving the real-word applicability of socio-technical evaluation methods but also overcoming the mentioned political impasse. The method takes into account that impacts of projects vary according to location and scale, which makes actors likely to have diverging interests and preferences regarding a single project.
The paper describes how the method was applied in several transport planning projects in the Brussels metropolitan area. It shows its contribution to the progress of planning processes of the respective projects by identifying critical actors and criteria or conditions, but also proposes possibilities for further development, such as taking into account the temporal dimensions of decision problems and demarcating systems boundaries.
Original languageEnglish
StateUnpublished - 19 Oct 2017
EventINTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL UNION
COMMISSION ON GEOGRAPHY OF GOVERNANCE 2017 International Annual Conference
- Lecce, Italy
Duration: 19 Oct 201721 Oct 2017

Conference

ConferenceINTERNATIONAL GEOGRAPHICAL UNION
COMMISSION ON GEOGRAPHY OF GOVERNANCE 2017 International Annual Conference
CountryItaly
CityLecce
Period19/10/1721/10/17

Sustainable Mobility and Logistics: Handbook Edition 2017

Thu, 19 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Sustainable Mobility and Logistics: Handbook Edition 2017

Macharis, C. (ed.) & Van Mierlo, J. (ed.) 19 Oct 2017 Brussel: VUB Cursusdienst. 319 p.

Research output: SpecialistScholarly edition

Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationBrussel
PublisherVUB Cursusdienst
Number of pages319
StatePublished - 19 Oct 2017

Retailers’ logistics strategies in times of omnichannel retail

Wed, 18 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Original languageEnglish
StatePublished - 18 Oct 2017
Event7th METRANS International Urban Freight Conference - Long Beach, Long Beach, United States
Duration: 18 Oct 201720 Oct 2017

Conference

Conference7th METRANS International Urban Freight Conference
CountryUnited States
CityLong Beach
Period18/10/1720/10/17

A stakeholder-based methodology to enhance the success of urban freight transport measures in a multi-level governance context

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

A stakeholder-based methodology to enhance the success of urban freight transport measures in a multi-level governance context

Kin, B., Verlinde, S., Mommens, K. M. & Macharis, C. 12 Oct 2017 In : Research in Transportation Economics. 65, p. 10-23

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Urban freight transport (UFT) is fundamental to the liveability of our cities, but it also contributes to the unsustainability of the same cities. Local authorities are primarily responsible for governing urban areas and implement different measures to regulate UFT. Measures often fail as they do not reach their intended goal and sometimes even produce adverse effects. One of the primary causes is that prior to implementation, the different stakeholders affecting and being affected by the UFT are not sufficiently involved. In this study, the multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) is applied ex-ante to evaluate to what extent different measures contribute to the objectives of different stakeholders. A municipality in Belgium, experiencing a lot of traffic, is used as a case study. Regulating UFT is in this case further complicated due to multi-level governance with different jurisdictions over infrastructure. To our knowledge, there are no similar UFT studies in a multi-level governance context. Results show that all proposed measures are an improvement for all stakeholders compared to the current situation. Future implementation of measures in this context is discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)10-23
JournalResearch in Transportation Economics
Volume65
StatePublished - 12 Oct 2017

Control Design, Analysis and Comparative study of Different Control Strategies of a Bidirectional DC/DC Multiport Converter for Electric Vehicles

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Multiport converters (MPCs) represent a valuable solution when multiple sources are present in an electric vehicle. The control strategies of these MPCs are one of the key elements that may have a significant impact on the vehicle performances. The interleaving technique enhances the performances of the DC/DC converters by paralleling and shifting the commutation instances of the parallel phases. In addition, as multiple ports are present, these are also interleaved arising the concept of port interleaving. Here a mix of control strategies is used to take advantage of the MPC. State-feedback control at the voltage port and feedback linearization at the current port shows superior results in simulation when compared with other standard techniques.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEVS30 Symposium, Stuttgart, Germany
Pages1-14
Number of pages14
StatePublished - 9 Oct 2017
EventEVS30 - Stuttgart, Germany
Duration: 9 Oct 201711 Oct 2017

Conference

ConferenceEVS30
CountryGermany
CityStuttgart
Period9/10/1711/10/17

Cycle Life Evaluation for Lithium-Ion Capacitors

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Cycle Life Evaluation for Lithium-Ion Capacitors

Soltani, M., Jaguemont, J., Omar, N., Ronsmans, J., Van Den Bossche, P. & Van Mierlo, J. 9 Oct 2017 EVS30 Symposium. p. 1-7 7 p.

Research output: ResearchConference paper

Lithium-ion capacitor (LiC) is a hybrid energy storage device which compounds the energy storage mechanisms of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) and electric double-layer capacitors (EDLCs). Its structure is composed of a positive electrode with activated carbon as in double-layer capacitor and a negative electrode based on Li-doped carbon like the Li-ion battery. The advantage of the LiC technology compared to the conventional storage device is because of the power density, the nominal voltage, and the energy density is higher than the EDLCs. Due to their inherent long cycle life, it is indispensable to predict the cycle life of this cell type. The objective of this paper is to investigate the capacitance degradation of LiCs by calendar life test and power-cycling test. In the calendar life test, the degradation is measured at different floating voltages and temperatures. In the power cycling test, the degradation corresponding to the current level and the temperature is evaluated. The resulting capacitance retention trends declare a dependency to temperature, SoC, and current levels.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEVS30 Symposium
Pages1-7
Number of pages7
StatePublished - 9 Oct 2017

liquid thermal management of a lithium ion capacitor module

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

liquid thermal management of a lithium ion capacitor module

Jaguemont, J., Ghamraoui, A., Omar, N., Hegazy, O., Ronsmans, J., Soltani, M., Van Den Bossche, P. & Van Mierlo, J. 9 Oct 2017 EVS30 symposium.

Research output: ResearchConference paper

This paper presents the development of a thermal management system for an energy storage system based on lithium-ion capacitors. In the proposed study, a liquid cooling method for a LiC module that comprises 12 cells has been investigated. In this sense, a 3D thermal model coupled with liquid cooling plates has been developed in order to test its effectiveness and the potential it could represent in comparison with other cooling strategies. The developed model has clearly shown an optimal performance of the module could not be reached without controlling the temperature distribution, using liquid-cooling medium, it is possible to solve this issue.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEVS30 symposium
StatePublished - 9 Oct 2017

Online multi chemistry SoC estimation technique using data driven battery model parameter estimation

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Online multi chemistry SoC estimation technique using data driven battery model parameter estimation

De Sutter, L., Nikolian, A., Timmermans, J-M., Omar, N. & Van Mierlo, J. 9 Oct 2017 Electric Vehicle Symposium 30. 12 p.

Research output: ResearchConference paper

Kalman filters have shown to be a very accurate and robust method for SoC estimation. However, their
performance depends heavily on the accuracy of the used battery model and its parameters. These battery
model parameters have shown to vary with the SoH, cell chemistry, temperature and load current.
This paper proposes a data driven battery model parameter estimation technique based on the recursive
least squares method as an alternative to extensively characterizing every cell of interest with time consuming
test procedures, reducing offline characterization time by up to 70%. This allows the parameter
estimation model to be applied, in cooperation with a SoC estimation model, to create a data driven multi
chemistry SoC estimation module.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationElectric Vehicle Symposium 30
Number of pages12
StatePublished - 9 Oct 2017
EventElectric Vehicle Symposium 30 - Stuttgart, Germany
Duration: 9 Oct 201711 Oct 2017
http://www.messe-stuttgart.de/en/evs30/

Conference

ConferenceElectric Vehicle Symposium 30
Abbreviated titleEVS30
CountryGermany
CityStuttgart
Period9/10/1711/10/17
Internet address

Streamline three-dimensional thermal model of a lithium titanate pouch cell battery in extreme temperature conditions with module simulation

Mon, 09 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

In this paper, the development of a three-dimensional (3D) lithium titanium oxide (LTO) pouch cell is presented to
first better comprehend its thermal behavior within electrified vehicle applications, but also to propose a strong modeling
base for future thermal management system. Current 3D-thermal models are based on electrochemical reactions
which are in need for elaborated meshing eort and long computational time. There lacks a fast electro-thermal
model which can capture voltage, current and thermal distribution variation during the whole process. The proposed
thermal model is a reduce-eort temperature simulation approach involving a 0D-electrical model accommodating a
3D-thermal model to exclude electrochemical processes. The thermal model is based on heat-transfer theory and its
temperature distribution prediction incorporates internal conduction and heat generation eect as well as convection.
In addition, experimental tests are conducted to validate the model. Results show that both the heat dissipation rate
and surface temperature uniformity data are in agreement with simulation results, which satisfies the application
requirements for electrified vehicles. Additionally, a LTO battery pack sizing and modeling is also designed, applied
and displays a non-uniformity of the cells under driving operation. Ultimately, the model will serve as a basis for the
future development of a thermal strategy for LTO cells that operate in a large temperature range, which is a strong
contribution to the existing body of scientific literature.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)24-33
JournalJournal of Power Sources
Volume367
StatePublished - 9 Oct 2017

Urban freight policy innovation: Case studies

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Urban freight policy innovation: Case studies

Marcucci, E., Gatta, V. & Macharis, C. Oct 2017 In : Research in Transportation Economics. 65, p. 1-2

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-2
JournalResearch in Transportation Economics
Volume65
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2017

DC Grids for Smart LED-Based Lighting: The EDISON Solution

Thu, 21 Sep 2017 00:00:00 GMT

DC Grids for Smart LED-Based Lighting: The EDISON Solution

Thielemans, S., Di Zenobio, D., Touhafi, A., Lataire, P. & Steenhaut, K. 21 Sep 2017 In : Energies. 10, 10, 26 p., 1454

Research output: Research - peer-reviewArticle

This paper highlights the benefits and possible drawbacks of a DC-based lighting infrastructure for powering Light Emitting Diode (LED)-lamps. It also evaluates the efforts needed for integrating the so called smart lighting and other sensor/actuator based control systems, and compares existing and emerging solutions. It reviews and discusses published work in this field with special focus on the intelligent DC-based infrastructure named EDISON that is primarily dedicated to lighting, but is applicable to building automation in general. The EDISON “PowerLAN” consists of a DC-based infrastructure that offers telecommunication abilities and can be applied to lighting retrofitting scenarios for buildings. Its infrastructure allows simple and efficient powering of DC-oriented devices like LED lamps, sensors and microcontrollers, while offering a wired communication channel. This paper motivates the design choices for organizing DC lighting grids and their associated communication possibilities. It also shows how the EDISON based smart lighting solution is evolving today to include new communication technologies and to further integrate other parts of building management solutions through the OneM2M (Machine to Machine) service bus.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1454
Number of pages26
JournalEnergies
Volume10
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - 21 Sep 2017

Indicators for the 2016 new and second-hand car fleet in Belgium and the regions

Thu, 21 Sep 2017 00:00:00 GMT

Original languageEnglish
Commissioning bodyLNE / BIM / AWAC
Number of pages43
StatePublished - 21 Sep 2017

A Step Towards Demand Sensing: Employing EDI 852 Product Activity Data in Demand Forecasting

Fri, 15 Sep 2017 00:00:00 GMT

A Step Towards Demand Sensing: Employing EDI 852 Product Activity Data in Demand Forecasting

Van Belle, J. E. & Verbeke, W. 15 Sep 2017 37th International Symposium on Forecasting . p. 4 1 p.

Research output: ResearchMeeting abstract (Book)

This paper deals with short-term demand forecasting of medicines in a US drugs factory based on historical sales and EDI 852 product activity data. Traditionally, demand forecasting relies on statistical methods such as ARIMA, and smoothing methods such as exponential smoothing, to extrapolate the series of historical sales. Although these methods produce reasonably accurate forecasts in many cases, companies are looking for an increasingly higher level of forecast accuracy to further enhance the efficiency of their supply chains. With more and more diverse data becoming available at a higher velocity, it becomes possible to employ non-traditional data sources and generate forecasts for increasingly shorter time periods. From this point of view, in recent years, the concept of demand sensing emerged. However, in the scientific literature and empirical studies, the concept has gained only very little attention to date. Essentially, demand sensing comes down to leveraging a combination of near real-time (i.a. orders), downstream (ideally point-of-sale) and external data to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts. In their purest form, however, the traditional models do not allow for the inclusion of covariates. In this paper a particular type of downstream data, EDI 852 product activity data, is employed in producing short-term weekly demand forecasts obtained from an ARIMAX, ETS-X, artificial neural network and support vector regression model. The EDI 852 is a data standard used for exchanging product related information (e.g. sales over the previous reporting period and ending inventory levels) between the supplier and the (end)customer. In order to produce the weekly demand forecasts, three years of historical weekly factory sales data and weekly wholesaler sales, ending inventory and receipts for the same time period are used. As a benchmark, also forecasts from an artificial neural network autoregression (NNAR), ARIMA and ETS model are produced. Forecast accuracy is measured out-of-sample by MAE, MAPE and MASE, so that both comparison between the methods as well as comparison across different series is facilitated.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication37th International Symposium on Forecasting
Pages4
Number of pages1
StatePublished - 15 Sep 2017
Event37th International Symposium on Forecasting - Cairns Convention Centre, Cairns, Australia
Duration: 25 Jun 201728 Jun 2017
http://forecasters.org/isf/

Conference

Conference37th International Symposium on Forecasting
CountryAustralia
CityCairns
Period25/06/1728/06/17
Internet address